Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Atmosphere at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards held at the Peacock Theater on January 15, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.
Gilbert Flores for Variety
Emmys Commentary (Updated: Aug. 14, 2025): The Emmy Awards are less than a month away, and just like a tightly contested Senate race or a Super Bowl clash between dynasties, this year’s showdown is stacked with heavyweights, breakout rookies, surprise spoilers — and yes, a clear frontrunner with a not-so-insignificant lead.
But here’s the thing about Emmy races: nominations are like college football’s preseason rankings. They matter, and can shape the narrative; however, they don’t guarantee you’re going home with the trophy.
This is shaping up as a two-horse race between Apple TV+’s “Severance” and HBO Max’s “The Pitt,” and the numbers tell a revealing story about how Emmy campaigns are really won.
“Severance” is the prohibitive favorite in this year’s drama series race — and not just because it scored a category-leading 27 nominations, the most of any show this year.
Richard Phibbs for Variety
The sci-fi workplace thriller has constructed what political operatives would call a ground game: nine acting nominations across lead, supporting and guest categories (including Variety cover star, Tramell Tillman) — and deep support across the crafts, from editing and music to production design. That kind of breadth matters in a voting body as segmented and specialized as the Television Academy.
“The Pitt,” meanwhile, enters the race with a respectable 13 nominations — enough to be considered a serious contender, but also a potential signal of limited reach. It earned only three acting nods and didn’t make a major dent below the line. It’s miss in picture editing (which is among the four largest peer groups in the Academy) is a hurdle that could be difficult to overcome. That’s a problem when trying to unseat a frontrunner that appears on nearly every branch’s ballot.
The history on the number of nominations also points to a “Severance” victory. In the past 10 years, the drama series with the most nominations has won the top prize nine times. That list reads like a Hall of Fame plaque: “Succession” (three times), “Game of Thrones” (four times), “The Crown,” and last year’s record-breaker “Shōgun.”
Still, if “The Pitt” wants to pull off an upset, it would need to mimic 2017, when “The Handmaid’s Tale” (13 noms) triumphed over the more-nominated “Westworld” (22). What’s even more interesting, 2017 was the last time a show that missed an editing nom, was still able to win drama series, which also had 13 nominations (just like “The Pitt”).
Apple TV+’s behind-the-scenes satire “The Studio” landed 23 nominations, breaking the record for a first-year comedy series — previously held by “Ted Lasso” (20 noms in 2021) and tying the all-time record with “The Bear” last year. And while it doesn’t have the emotional pull of “Abbott Elementary” or the critical pedigree of “Hacks,” it has the momentum and the industry behind it.
Seth Rogen’s multihyphenate turn — nominated for lead actor, producing, writing, and directing — is exactly the kind of insider-Hollywood storytelling that Emmy voters love.
It’s hard to imagine anything unseating “The Studio” at this point, but we all thought “The Bear” had it locked up last year…until it didn’t.
If Variety’s early winner predictions hold true, currently sitting at 11 wins, it would tie another record with “The Bear,” which it only set last year, as the most awarded comedy of all-time.
Netflix’s masterful crime drama “Adolescence” earned 13 nominations, including limited series and acting noms for co-creator and star Stephen Graham. It’s the frontrunner — and if it wins, Netflix will become the first streamer to win this category three years in a row, following victories by “Beef” and “Baby Reindeer.” That would tie NBC’s 1986–88 streak with “Peter the Great,” “A Year in the Life” and “The Murder of Mary Phagan.”
And let’s not forget the potential history-maker with 15-year-old Owen Cooper, likely becoming the youngest male actor to win a Primetime Emmy, breaking a record that has stood since 1973.
But don’t hand it the trophy just yet.
HBO Max’s “The Penguin” waddled in with 24 nominations, second-most overall, and is shaping up as a viable contender. Colin Farrell, impeccable as Oz Cobb, has already swept the winter awards circuit — picking up wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards. An Emmy would complete the awards-season grand slam. But if “Adolescence” is sweeping, as many are predicting it to do, why would voters stop checking boxes when you get to Graham’s name? This is reminiscent of Richard Gadd’s victory last year over Andrew Scott (“Ripley”) and Jon Hamm (“Fargo”).
One more thing worth remembering as ballots go out: genre shows still struggle at the Emmys (and all awards ceremonies).
Marvel’s “WandaVision” led with 23 nominations in 2021 and walked away with just three Creative Arts Emmys. A stunning shutout, especially for Kathryn Hahn and Paul Bettany, who were widely predicted to win.
A signal that sci-fi, fantasy and superhero shows can dominate the tech categories, but the main stage remains just out of reach. Yes, HBO’s “Watchmen” broke through with 11 wins in 2020, but that could have been a lightning-in-a-bottle moment during the height of the COVID era — a time when all industry norms were thrown out the window. Whether that kind of win can be replicated in a “normal” year is still an open question.
Cassian Andor (Diego Luna) in Lucasfilm’s ANDOR Season 2, exclusively on Disney+. Photo courtesy of Lucasfilm. ©2025 Lucasfilm Ltd. & TM. All Rights Reserved.
Lucasfilm Ltd.
This line of thinking has to have an effect on the chances of another franchise like “Star Wars,” particularly with Disney’s “Andor,” which landed in such a significant way, and expanded its nomination count from the first season. With fans still loud and passionate about its strong performances and technical merits, they’re hoping it can muster some major trophies (especially for directing or writing).
The Television Academy has made strides. But there’s still a ceiling. And the genre shows know it.
With HBO Max breaking its all-time nomination record, followed by Netflix, it will ultimately come down to “Adolescence” and “The Penguin” that will determine which network will be able to take a victory lap as the top awards dog.
Final voting opens Monday, Aug. 18 and concludes Wednesday, Aug. 27.The 77th Emmy Awards, hosted by comedian Nate Bargatze, will broadcast live on Sunday, Sept. 14 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on CBS. The ceremony will also stream live and on-demand through select Paramount+ packages.
Top 5 projected winning series:
- “The Studio” (11)
- “Adolescence” and “Severance” (10)
- “The Penguin” (7)
- “Andor” (5)
- “Love on the Spectrum,” “The Pitt,” “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” and “The Traitors” (3)
Top 5 projected winning networks:
- Netflix (26)
- HBO Max (25)
- Apple TV+ (22)
- NBC (7)
- ABC, Disney+ and FX (6)
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Drama Series
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Comedy Series
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Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Limited or Anthology Series
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Television Movie
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Lead Actor (Drama)
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Lead Actor (Comedy)
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Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie)
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Lead Actress (Drama)
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Lead Actress (Comedy)
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Lead Actress (Limited/TV Movie)
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Supporting Actor (Drama)
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Supporting Actor (Comedy)
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Supporting Actor (Limited/TV Movie)
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Supporting Actress (Drama)
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Supporting Actress (Comedy)
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Supporting Actress (Limited/TV Movie)
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Guest Actor (Drama)
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Guest Actress (Drama)
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Guest Actor (Comedy)
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Guest Actress (Comedy)
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Reality Programs
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Talk Series
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Scripted Variety
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Variety Specials (Live, Pre-Recorded)
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Documentary/Nonfiction
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Directing (Drama)
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Directing (Comedy)
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Directing (Limited or Anthology/TV Movie)
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Directing (Documentary/Nonfiction)
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Directing (Variety Series)
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Directing (Variety Special)
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Directing (Reality)
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Writing (Drama)
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Writing (Comedy)
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Writing (Limited/TV Movie)
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Writing (Variety Series)
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Writing (Variety Special)
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Writing (Nonfiction)
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Game Show
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Host for a Game Show
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Host (Reality/Competition)
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Casting
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Animated Program
Image Credit: Fox !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Character Voiceover/Short Form Performer
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Production Design
Image Credit: Chuck Zlotnick / Marvel Studios !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Jon Pack/Netflix !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Costumes
Image Credit: Larry Horricks/AMC !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy of Hulu !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Makeup
Image Credit: Theo Whiteman/HBO !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Hairstyling
Image Credit: Russ Martin / FX / Courtesy Everett Collection !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Sound Mixing
Image Credit: ©Disney+/Courtesy Everett Collection !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Sound Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy of HBO !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Special Visual Effects
Image Credit: ©Amazon/Courtesy Everett Collection !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Music
Image Credit: Emerson Miller/Paramount+ !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Short Form
Image Credit: Lloyd Bishop/NBC !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Stunts/Choreography
Image Credit: ©Amazon/Courtesy Everett Collec !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Title Design/Commercials/Emerging Media
Image Credit: Apple TV+ !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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Technical Direction/Camerawork/Lighting Design
Image Credit: Disney !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
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More Information
Image Credit: Michael Buckner !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}})}();
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
